According to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Prices Indices released today the twenty largest markets in the United States fell 3.7% on average from November 2010 to November 2011, and were 32.9% below the highs of July 2006. Portland was down 28.6% from its high in July 2007. Portland prices are now, on average, where they were in October 2004.

The 20-City Composite also decreased 1.3% this past November compared to October 2011. Portland showed a 1.6% decrease between November and October. Several cities – Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – all reached new lows in November 2011.

Portland dropped 4.8% from November 2010 to November 2011, outperforming all the other West Coast markets. Seattle dropped 6.3% and the three big California markets all dropped between 5.4% and 5.5%.

None of this is really news, as it was reported several weeks ago in local papers and in this blog. The real question remains: Have we finally hit bottom? Many experts think so. More on that next time.

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In 2011 19,682 homes sold in the Portland metro area, 4.0% more than in 2010.

The Portland median home price fell 7.9% from 2010 to 2011. Average price fell 6.7%. 22% of the homes sold were bank owned, selling at a 36% average discount from non-distressed homes. 11% were short sales, selling at a 17% average discount. Non-distressed properties held their value much better than distressed properties, and actually appreciated in a few areas. The overall year-over-year decline was smaller than previously years, which usually signals stabilizing prices.

The number of homes listed for sale in 2011 dropped 25.4% from 2010 to 34,084. That led to a steady decline in the inventory of homes available for sale. At December’s sale rate, it would take only 5.3 months to sell all the homes on the market, a level not seen since July 2007, the peak of the market. Six months inventory is generally considered a balanced market.

What does all this mean for 2012? Stayed tuned.

The RMLS Market Action Report for October 2011 reported that sales activity in the Portland metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales this October compared to October 2010, and the inventory level remained much lower than the same month in 2010. Comparing October 2011 to October 2010, closed sales grew 14.1%, pending sales grew 15.1%, and new listings fell 22%. At October 2011′s rate of sales, the Portland inventory would last 6.8 months. Inventory in October 2010 was at 10.7 months. Conventional wisdom holds that six months inventory is a balanced market.

The Portland median sale price fell 6.7% between October 2010 and October 2011.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

The RMLS Market Action Report for September 2011 reported that sales activity in the Portland metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales this September compared to September 2010, and the inventory level remained much lower than the same month in 2010. Comparing September 2011 to September 2010, closed sales grew 13.4%, pending sales grew 17.5%, and new listings fell 29.5%. At September 2011′s rate of sales, the Portland inventory would last 6.7 months. Inventory in September 2010 was at 10.5 months. Conventional wisdom holds that six months inventory is a balanced market.

The Portland median sale price fell 3.8% between September 2010 and September 2011.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released Tuesday, showed a fourth consecutive month of home price increases across the United States. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.9% in July over June, 2011. Portland was up 1.0%.

 
Other west coast cities were also higher in July than June, though none as much as Portland.

 
All markets except Detroit and Washington D.C. were below their July 2010 levels. Portland was down 8.4% from July 2010 to July 2011.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

Want to just look at homes online? Try the Best Home Search Site on the Planet, no obligation.

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Prediction: September and October 2011 months inventory will fall below 6.0 months, a level last seen in July 2007, the peak of the Portland housing market boom.

 
The August RMLS Market Action reported Thursday that Portland’s closed home sales were up 5.6% from July 2011 (1,709 to 1,805), and up 30.7% from August 2010 (1,381 to 1,805).
 

 
Portland’s home sale prices fell slightly from July 2011 to August 2011. The average sale price fell 1.2% ($275,100 to $271,800) and the median sale price fell 1.0% ($227,200 to $225,000).
 

 
Months inventory at the end of August fell to 6.2, meaning at the August rate of sales it would take a little over six months to sell all the homes then on the market. This was a decrease from July’s 7.0 months, and continues to be within the “balanced market” band of 5 to 7 months supply that we have seen since March 2011.
 

 
Looking forward to September and October closings, August 2011 pending sales increased 13.4% from July 2011 (1,928 to 2,187). New listings went down 2.1% (2,942 to 2,879). Absent a surge of new listings, September and October months inventory should reach the lowest point since before the crash, a welcome development indeed. For home sellers, the lower inventory will, hopefully, temper the seasonal drop in sale prices that occurs every winter.
 
Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.
 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released Tuesday, August 30, 2011 “…showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices.  No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.  Nationally home prices are back to their early 2003 levels.

Nineteen of the 20 MSA’s and both monthly composites were up versus May, the exception being Portland, which was flat (although technically, Portland was up 0.01%, rounded to 0.0%).  All markets remain below their June 2010 levels.

Regionally, the West Coast continues to outperform the country as a whole. Seattle was up 0.7% from May to June. The major California cities, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco, were up from May 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4%, respectively, and substantially above their Spring 2009 lows.

At the other extreme, the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa and Miami – and the weakest of all, Detroit, set new lows in 2011. According to Case-Shiller, these shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together. So pay attention to Seattle, which Portland tends to match closely, and the California cities, which we tend to follow by a few months.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

Want to just look at homes online? Try the Best Home Search Site on the Planet, no obligation.

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The July RMLS Market Action reported that Portland’s home sale prices rose from June 2011 to July 2011. The average sale price rose 3.0% ($267,100 to $275,100) and the median sale price rose 1.9% ($222,900 to $227,200).

Months inventory at the end of July rose to 7.0, meaning at the July rate of sales it would take 7.0 months to sell all the homes then on the market. This was an increase over June’s 6.0 months, yet within the “balanced market” band of 5 to 7 months supply that we have seen for a while now.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

The June RMLS Market Action reported Friday that Portland’s active listing inventory fell to 6.0 months, the lowest since July 2007, which was also the peak of the Portland market. Closed sales for June 2011 totaled 1,958 (up 12.4% from May) and active listings at the end of June were 11,817 (down 0.07% from May).

The same data in table form gives a better picture of how June 2011 compared to the previous eight Junes. Conventional wisdom currently holds that six months inventory is a balanced market. From this perspective, last month looks like the healthiest June in years.

And for diehards that want it all in one graph:

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

The June RMLS Market Action reported Friday that Portland’s closed home sales were up 12.4% from May 2011 (1,742 to 1,958), and down 2.7% from June 2010 (2,012 to 1,958), the month the First Time Homebuyer Tax credit expired. Looking forward to July and August closings, June 2011 pending sales decreased 7.7% from May 2011 (2,167 to 2,001), and increased 23.7% from June 2010 (1,618 to 2,001).

Portland’s median sale price rose 1.3% from May 2011 to $222,900, but was 7.1% below the median sale price in June 2010.

Tomorrow I’ll post the forward looking indicator that I think matters most. The news is encouraging.