Prediction: September and October 2011 months inventory will fall below 6.0 months, a level last seen in July 2007, the peak of the Portland housing market boom.

 
The August RMLS Market Action reported Thursday that Portland’s closed home sales were up 5.6% from July 2011 (1,709 to 1,805), and up 30.7% from August 2010 (1,381 to 1,805).
 

 
Portland’s home sale prices fell slightly from July 2011 to August 2011. The average sale price fell 1.2% ($275,100 to $271,800) and the median sale price fell 1.0% ($227,200 to $225,000).
 

 
Months inventory at the end of August fell to 6.2, meaning at the August rate of sales it would take a little over six months to sell all the homes then on the market. This was a decrease from July’s 7.0 months, and continues to be within the “balanced market” band of 5 to 7 months supply that we have seen since March 2011.
 

 
Looking forward to September and October closings, August 2011 pending sales increased 13.4% from July 2011 (1,928 to 2,187). New listings went down 2.1% (2,942 to 2,879). Absent a surge of new listings, September and October months inventory should reach the lowest point since before the crash, a welcome development indeed. For home sellers, the lower inventory will, hopefully, temper the seasonal drop in sale prices that occurs every winter.
 
Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.
 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released Tuesday, August 30, 2011 “…showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices.  No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.  Nationally home prices are back to their early 2003 levels.

Nineteen of the 20 MSA’s and both monthly composites were up versus May, the exception being Portland, which was flat (although technically, Portland was up 0.01%, rounded to 0.0%).  All markets remain below their June 2010 levels.

Regionally, the West Coast continues to outperform the country as a whole. Seattle was up 0.7% from May to June. The major California cities, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco, were up from May 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4%, respectively, and substantially above their Spring 2009 lows.

At the other extreme, the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa and Miami – and the weakest of all, Detroit, set new lows in 2011. According to Case-Shiller, these shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together. So pay attention to Seattle, which Portland tends to match closely, and the California cities, which we tend to follow by a few months.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

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The July RMLS Market Action reported that Portland’s home sale prices rose from June 2011 to July 2011. The average sale price rose 3.0% ($267,100 to $275,100) and the median sale price rose 1.9% ($222,900 to $227,200).

Months inventory at the end of July rose to 7.0, meaning at the July rate of sales it would take 7.0 months to sell all the homes then on the market. This was an increase over June’s 6.0 months, yet within the “balanced market” band of 5 to 7 months supply that we have seen for a while now.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

The June RMLS Market Action reported Friday that Portland’s active listing inventory fell to 6.0 months, the lowest since July 2007, which was also the peak of the Portland market. Closed sales for June 2011 totaled 1,958 (up 12.4% from May) and active listings at the end of June were 11,817 (down 0.07% from May).

The same data in table form gives a better picture of how June 2011 compared to the previous eight Junes. Conventional wisdom currently holds that six months inventory is a balanced market. From this perspective, last month looks like the healthiest June in years.

And for diehards that want it all in one graph:

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

The June RMLS Market Action reported Friday that Portland’s closed home sales were up 12.4% from May 2011 (1,742 to 1,958), and down 2.7% from June 2010 (2,012 to 1,958), the month the First Time Homebuyer Tax credit expired. Looking forward to July and August closings, June 2011 pending sales decreased 7.7% from May 2011 (2,167 to 2,001), and increased 23.7% from June 2010 (1,618 to 2,001).

Portland’s median sale price rose 1.3% from May 2011 to $222,900, but was 7.1% below the median sale price in June 2010.

Tomorrow I’ll post the forward looking indicator that I think matters most. The news is encouraging.

Data through April 2011 released today in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show a monthly increase in prices for the 10- and 20- City Composites for the first time in eight months. The 20-City Composite, which includes Portland, was up 0.66% over March 2011.

“In a welcome shift from recent months, this month is better than last – April’s numbers beat March,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “However, the seasonally adjusted numbers show that much of the improvement reflects the beginning of the Spring-Summer home buying season. It is much too early to tell if this is a turning point or simply due to warm weather.”

Thinking about selling? Now is the best time in almost three years!

The major West Coast cities followed the national trend, led by San Francisco with a 1.70% increase and Seattle with a 1.63% increase over March. Portland rose 0.13% in April over the previous month.

A few weeks ago we broke out the neighborhood averages that contribute to the overall Portland performance in our post “Portland Home Value Changes Vary Widely by Area.”

We also demonstrated that non-distressed properties are performing very differently from the reported market averages in “West Portland Housing Stable Through April, Again.”

Call us at 503.222.3300 to learn your home’s value today!

And visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center for more real estate information.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for March, 2011 reported that the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Index declined 0.77% since February, falling to the lowest level seen since the national peak in 2006. Twelve cities, including Portland, fell to their lowest levels of the current housing cycle. Portland was down 0.7% from February 2011 and down 7.6% from March 2010.

Other West Coast cities fared a little better than Portland – San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco suffered smaller drops, and Seattle rose a stunning 0.1% from February to March, one of two MSA’s to improve.

Last week we broke out the neighborhood averages that contribute to the overall Portland performance in our post “Portland Home Value Changes Vary Widely by Area.” The precise numbers differ because of differing methodologies, but the trends are similar.

We also demonstrated that non-distressed properties are performing very differently from the reported market averages in “West Portland Housing Stable Through April, Again.”

Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center for more real estate information.

Comparing the first four months of each of the past five years illustrates what many have sensed: the close-in West Portland real estate market has been relatively stable for some time.

Media reports headline city-wide averages that include distressed property sales – bank owned and short sale properties. According to RMLS data, West Portland home sales averaged 4.6% lower in price the first four months of 2011 compared to the first four months of 2010. Remove the distressed property sales, however, and the average sale prices even out for three straight years.

Other areas of town may have similar patterns. Call us if you would like to know what has happened in your area.

The total number of homes sold in West Portland has not been as consistent over the same time period. Particularly significant is the volatility of total sales of homes less than 2,000 SF in size, which include almost all of the Pearl District and South Waterfront condominiums.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

Media reports, from cable news to The Oregonian, regularly report broad real estate trends that you probably suspect don’t reflect what is happening in your neighborhood. All real estate is local. What is happening to your home’s market value?

In most areas non-distressed home sales – those that are not a short sale or bank owned – are holding up pretty well.

Example: Last week less than 19% of the active listings in close-in West Portland were short sale or bank owned properties (compared to over 29% city-wide), and West Portland showed an average sale price decline of 4.6% during the first four months of 2011 over the same period in 2010, much less than the overall Portland average of 8.1%.

On the other hand, the Beaverton and Aloha markets, where over 39% of the active listings are either short sale or bank owned properties, showed a 14.8% drop year-to-date 2011 from year-to-date 2010.

The distressed sales pulled down the averages (and the medians), so areas with relatively high proportions of distressed sales suffered more statistically.

The median sale prices for the same group of homes follow a similar pattern, but differ slightly as you can see below.

So how does having a lot of distressed sales around you affect the value of your home? Tune in tomorrow.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.

Number of Closed Sales: April 2011 closed sales in Portland were even with March (1,615 to 1,611) and down 17% compared to April 2010 (1,941 to 1,611).

Sale Prices: April 2011 median sale prices in Portland rose 2.3% over March ($215,000 to $219,900) but were down 8.4% compared to April 2010 ($240,000 to $219,000).

Months Inventory: At April’s rate of sales, the 11,621 active listings at the end of April would last about 7.2 months.

Curious about your neighborhood? Call us at 503.222.4300, or visit our Portland Home Team Market Data Center.